![]() Bowman has a 13.5 average finish to Almirola's 15.0 average finish. If you look at just season-long results, it looks like Bowman should be the clear favorite. That gives us more confidence in each driver's median projection being closer to the true long-term median finish.īecause Richmond has a major incident rate among the lowest of all the tracks the Cup Series visits, I have a few matchups for tonight's race that offer lower variance projections relative to other races and that my model also projects as strong value bets.Ī quick explanation on the odds below: -110 means a $110 wager would profit $100, while +135 means a $100 bet would net $135. Instead of looking at these types of drivers for our matchup bets, it's better to focus on two drivers matching up with a more narrow range of outcomes. As a result, he's more of a boom-or-bust play when you're betting head-to-head matchups. A win nets him a trophy, and more playoff points that carry over to future rounds. That means his only goal at Richmond is to win the race. (+1400) won the playoff opener at Las Vegas, which automatically advances him to the second round of the playoffs.
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